Exploring and Predicting Severe Road Traffic Crashes with Machine Learning Models

Richard Wen
rwen@ryerson.ca

Introduction

Traffic Collisions Wordwide

  • 3700+ traffic collisions per day
  • Over a million lives lost every year

Data

Datasets

Killed or Seriously Injured (KSI) Collisions

  • Police reports where officer attended collision event
  • Only major (admitted to hospital) or fatal (death) injuries
  • Every row is one person involved
Out[57]:
X Y Index_ ACCNUM YEAR DATE TIME Hour STREET1 STREET2 OFFSET ROAD_CLASS District WardNum WardNum_X WardNum_Y Division Division_X Division_Y LATITUDE LONGITUDE LOCCOORD ACCLOC TRAFFCTL VISIBILITY LIGHT RDSFCOND ACCLASS IMPACTYPE INVTYPE INVAGE INJURY FATAL_NO INITDIR VEHTYPE MANOEUVER DRIVACT DRIVCOND PEDTYPE PEDACT PEDCOND CYCLISTYPE CYCACT CYCCOND PEDESTRIAN CYCLIST AUTOMOBILE MOTORCYCLE TRUCK TRSN_CITY_ EMERG_VEH PASSENGER SPEEDING AG_DRIV REDLIGHT ALCOHOL DISABILITY Hood_ID Neighbourh ObjectId
0 -79.412438 43.767462 80221198 4003162994 2014 2014-10-24T04:00:00.000Z 2315 23 YONGE ST HILLCREST AVE Major Arterial North York 18 0 0 32 0 0 43.767462 -79.412438 Intersection Non Intersection No Control Clear Dark, artificial Dry Non-Fatal Injury Sideswipe Passenger unknown None 0 Yes Yes Yes 51 Willowdale East (51) 12001
1 -79.516246 43.718318 80565670 6001093797 2016 2016-06-22T04:00:00.000Z 2315 23 120 BEVERLY HILLS DR 65 m South of Collector Etobicoke York 7 0 0 31 0 0 43.718318 -79.516246 Mid-Block Non Intersection No Control Clear Dark, artificial Dry Non-Fatal Injury Pedestrian Collisions Driver 25 to 29 None 0 South Automobile, Station Wagon Going Ahead Driving Properly Normal Yes Yes Yes 26 Downsview-Roding-CFB (26) 12002
2 -79.516246 43.718318 80565671 6001093797 2016 2016-06-22T04:00:00.000Z 2315 23 120 BEVERLY HILLS DR 65 m South of Collector Etobicoke York 7 0 0 31 0 0 43.718318 -79.516246 Mid-Block Non Intersection No Control Clear Dark, artificial Dry Non-Fatal Injury Pedestrian Collisions Passenger 30 to 34 None 0 Yes Yes Yes 26 Downsview-Roding-CFB (26) 12003
3 -79.516246 43.718318 80565672 6001093797 2016 2016-06-22T04:00:00.000Z 2315 23 120 BEVERLY HILLS DR 65 m South of Collector Etobicoke York 7 0 0 31 0 0 43.718318 -79.516246 Mid-Block Non Intersection No Control Clear Dark, artificial Dry Non-Fatal Injury Pedestrian Collisions Pedestrian 10 to 14 Major 0 East Vehicle hits the pedestrian walking or running... Crossing, no Traffic Control Inattentive Yes Yes Yes 26 Downsview-Roding-CFB (26) 12004
4 -79.374309 43.662909 80632379 6002153175 2016 2016-12-04T05:00:00.000Z 2315 23 CARLTON STREET HOMEWOOD AVENUE Minor Arterial Toronto and East York 13 0 0 51 0 0 43.662909 -79.374309 Intersection At Intersection No Control Rain Dark, artificial Wet Non-Fatal Injury Pedestrian Collisions Driver 75 to 79 None 0 East Automobile, Station Wagon Turning Left Failed to Yield Right of Way Inattentive Yes Yes Yes 73 Moss Park (73) 12005

KSI Density Map

Next, we map the data using a density heat map with the LONGITUDE and LATITUDE coordinates to get an idea of what the spatial distribution is like.

Centrelines

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FCODE Description
201100 Highway
201101 Highway Ramp
201200 Major Arterial Road
201201 Major Arterial Road Ramp
201300 Minor Arterial Road
201301 Minor Arterial Road Ramp
201400 Collector Road
201401 Collector Road Ramp
201500 Local Road
201600 Other Road
201700 Laneways
201803 Access Road
201801 Busway